Matthew Welch's College Football Ratings

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Latest Ratings

Chart: rank through rank

Ratings including games through 2018-9-15:

 TeamRatingWLSched. Str.
1Alabama0.73704300.60556
2Notre Dame0.72716300.59074
3Penn State0.72593300.58889
4Duke0.72407300.58611
5Indiana0.71667300.57500
6Louisiana State0.69877300.54815
7Clemson0.68951300.53426
8Oklahoma0.68395300.52593
9Oklahoma State0.68272300.52407
10Stanford0.68148300.52222
11Ohio State0.67654300.51481
12Georgia0.66914300.50370
13Mississippi State0.66111300.49167
14South Florida0.65556300.48333
15Boston College0.64660300.46991
16Minnesota0.64537300.46806
17Syracuse0.64321300.46481
18Buffalo0.64321300.46481
19California0.64259300.46389
20Louisiana Tech0.63519200.45278
21West Virginia0.63333200.45000
22Virginia Tech0.63333200.45000
23Vanderbilt0.62716210.60741
24Hawaii0.62488310.56233
25Army0.62423210.60301
26Cincinnati0.62099300.43148
27Iowa0.62099300.43148
28Mississippi0.61975210.59630
29Akron0.61667200.42500
30Kentucky0.61667300.42500
31Marshall0.61667200.42500
32Washington State0.61574300.42361
33Central Florida0.61481200.42222
34North Carolina State0.61481200.42222
35Colorado0.60787300.41181
36Oregon0.60617300.40926
37Auburn0.60617210.57593
38Missouri0.60463300.40694
39Boise State0.60123210.56852
40Texas A&M0.60000210.56667
41North Texas0.59198300.38796
42Michigan0.59136210.55370
43Brigham Young0.59012210.55185
44South Carolina0.58889110.63333
45Arkansas State0.58272210.54074
46Virginia0.58210210.53981
47Miami (FL)0.58086210.53796
48San Diego State0.57654210.53148
49Pittsburgh0.57654210.53148
50Arizona State0.57284210.52593
51Georgia Southern0.57253210.52546
52Appalachian State0.57222110.60833
53Coastal Carolina0.57037210.52222
54Texas Tech0.57037210.52222
55Illinois0.56914210.52037
56Washington0.56914210.52037
57Texas0.56667210.51667
58Maryland0.56543210.51481
59Florida Int'l0.56389210.51250
60Navy0.55880210.50486
61Nevada0.55802210.50370
62Louisiana-Monroe0.55617210.50093
63Houston0.55494210.49907
64Wake Forest0.55370210.49722
65Florida0.55108210.49329
66Memphis0.54753210.48796
67Baylor0.54691210.48704
68TCU0.54691210.48704
69Louisville0.54568210.48519
70Florida Atlantic0.54506210.48426
71Troy0.54074210.47778
72Wisconsin0.54074210.47778
73Kansas State0.53951210.47593
74Ball State0.53457120.63519
75Fresno State0.53457210.46852
76Eastern Michigan0.53333210.46667
77Utah0.53333210.46667
78Louisiana-Lafayette0.53148110.54722
79Alabama-Birmingham0.52593210.45556
80Tennessee0.52531210.45463
81UNC-Charlotte0.51605210.44074
82Utah State0.50833210.42917
83Liberty0.50463110.50694
84Northwestern0.50432120.58981
85New Mexico0.50216210.41991
86Michigan State0.49815110.49722
87Wyoming0.49514220.49271
88Toledo0.49444110.49167
89Air Force0.49444110.49167
90Ohio0.49444110.49167
91USC0.49136120.57037
92Kent State0.49012120.56852
93Middle Tennessee0.49012120.56852
94South Alabama0.48951120.56759
95Kansas0.48519210.39444
96UNLV0.48395210.39259
97Connecticut0.48333120.55833
98Georgia Tech0.48272120.55741
99Florida State0.48210120.55648
100Southern Miss0.47593110.46389
101Temple0.47160120.54074
102Oregon State0.47160120.54074
103Arizona0.46049120.52407
104Western Michigan0.45926120.52222
105Georgia State0.45741120.51944
106Colorado State0.45382130.55573
107Rice0.44892120.50671
108Massachusetts0.44769130.54653
109Tulsa0.44691120.50370
110Bowling Green0.44691120.50370
111Tulane0.44568120.50185
112Rutgers0.44198120.49630
113Northern Illinois0.44198120.49630
114Arkansas0.42762120.47477
115Texas St-San Marcos0.42346120.46852
116East Carolina0.40833110.36250
117Iowa State0.40556020.60833
118Miami (OH)0.38580030.57870
119Southern Methodist0.38025030.57037
120UCLA0.38025030.57037
121Purdue0.37407030.56111
122Nebraska0.36204020.54306
123Texas-San Antonio0.36173030.54259
124San José State0.35309030.52963
125New Mexico State0.35162040.52743
126Central Michigan0.34321030.51481
127North Carolina0.32870020.49306
128Western Kentucky0.32346030.48519
129Old Dominion0.31667030.47500
130UTEP0.29753030.44630

Kenneth Massey keeps a side by side comparison of ranking systems, including mine.

Thanks to Peter R. Wolfe for collecting and posting the results of all the college football games.

Here's the standard disclaimer: These ratings are not meant to predict the winners of future games, just rate teams' performances so far. It is certainly not meant to predict the spread or scores of a game. I know of no correlation whatsoever between my rating and scores of individual games, especially since I don't even count scores in my formula. I do not recommend or condone using these ratings for the purpose of gambling. Sports betting is evil. Blah blah blah.